One of the latest posts to the Wired Blog outlines a recent interview with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. The subject of the interview revolves around three potential ways that Facebook could fail.
Based on some of the other recent social networks (ahem...MySpace), these scenarios could certainly play out:
1) The User Base evaporates - the current 40 million users grow tired of the network and as certain friends leave for other sites, they follow.
2) Weak Business Model - although marketers are seemingly dumping money into sponsored groups and targeted advertisements, the model is murky at best. Without proper expansion / a consistent revenue stream, things could start to go downhill.
3) Growth Stunted While Waiting for Public Sale - with user growth still going strong, is Facebook hurting itself while waiting to sell? Increased funds could help the network expand and increase its core revenue.
With the rapid increase and falls other networks, it might not be long until the Facebook base moves elsewhere to the next great Web toy.